Island 1
Base Rates Bite Back
Rare diseases, noisy tests, and why intuition misfires.
Public course
🧠
Critical Thinking Lab
Catch weak arguments in the wild: base rates, fake patterns, loaded frames, and viral “studies.” Train the habits that keep you curious without getting played.
logic media bias
Course islands
Island 2
Correlation Is Not a Puppet Master
Spurious links, confounders, and sneaky charts.
Island 3
Confirmation’s Comfort Trap
We notice hits and forget misses.
Island 4
Checkpoint: Probabilistic Instincts
Base rates, causation, confirmation.
Island 5
Loaded Frames & Sneaky Questions
How wording steers answers before you think.
Island 6
Sample Size Reality Check
Tiny n, huge claims, noisy virality.
Island 7
Survivors Tell the Story
Missing graves, missing failures, missing context.
Island 8
Checkpoint: Frames & Samples
Wording tricks and missing data.
Island 9
Source Credibility Triage
Expertise, incentives, and primary vs. screenshot.
Island 10
False Dichotomies
Either/or traps that erase the middle.
Island 11
Anecdotes vs. Evidence
Stories persuade; data generalizes — know which you need.
Island 12
Final: Think in Public
Spot the flaw — then choose the sharper question.